The Bottom Line - Banking on Gratitude
Banking On Gratitude
The spirit of the season, gift of community, and stories of inspiration
As the year comes to a close, it’s natural to take a moment to reflect on our purpose, our relationships, and the impact we strive to make each day.
At Country Club Bank, a commitment to people is at the heart of everything we do: to clients who entrust us with their capital and dreams, to associates who bring our mission to life, and to the community we are honored to serve.
We truly appreciate the opportunity to contribute to our clients' successes. When our clients succeed, they create jobs, deliver essential products and services, and build a stronger Kansas City community. It’s a privilege to play even a small role in helping businesses grow, families thrive, and plans take shape.
As we drive around our city, past businesses we’ve supported, and projects we’ve financed, we are reminded of how fortunate we are to do this work.
To that end, we thought it appropriate to highlight some of the clients we've featured in this newsletter over the past year, including Bob Allen Ford, Bungii, The Rabbit Hole, Starlight Theatre, Team Aero, CyTek, Display Studios, McAnany Construction, Wayside Waifs, and Holland 1916. It’s a fantastic collection of inspiring stories of creativity, hard work, service, and perseverance.
Thank you to our clients, associates, and all the organizations in the area we serve for trusting us as partners. Together, we are building a stronger community and a brighter future, and for that, we are profoundly grateful.
— Paul Thompson, Chairman & CEO, Country Club Bank, Member FDIC
Economic Insights
Looking back at 2024: How housing, inflation, and jobs have changed and where they are likely headed in 2025
As 2024 wraps up, there’s plenty to unpack, especially regarding housing costs, interest rates, inflation, and the job market. While headlines have highlighted national trends, the reality on the ground and in different parts of the country has been more nuanced. The outlook for 2025 also suggests some interesting shifts.
Housing has been a mixed bag this year. For renters, markets like Austin, Raleigh, Denver, and Phoenix saw significant rent declines—some by as much as 10%—due to a surge in apartment construction. Oversupply in these markets and others has led to rent drops and declining occupancy rates.
Looking ahead, the story likely changes. While it appears that 2025 will see fewer new apartments, 2026 might experience an even sharper drop in new construction, potentially causing rent hikes in high-demand areas due to a supply crunch.
On the ownership side, homebuilders performed well despite high mortgage rates and housing prices were +3.9% in 2024 according to the most recent Case-Shiller reading. Single-family housing starts are expected to rise in 2025 (likely driven by a move to smaller, more affordable homes), while multifamily starts are likely to drop—welcome news in oversupplied rental markets.
High interest rates have been a recurring theme in 2024, making borrowing costly for developers, homebuyers, and businesses. The Federal Reserve has been reluctant to cut rates too quickly, signaling a cautious approach. With the quarter-point rate cut this month, the Fed rates are currently in the 4.25%-4.50% range (down from the recent peak of 5.25%-5.50%).
Inflation, meanwhile, cooled considerably in 2024. The most recent reading was 2.7% in November, slightly higher than October, but well below the 3.4% at the end of 2023. While goods prices have stabilized, other categories, like shelter costs and services, remain challenging.
In 2025, inflation is expected to stay under 3% (with the current FED forecast in a 2.1%-2.4% range), barring any unforeseen shocks, such as tariffs or supply chain disruptions. This steadier inflation should ease household pressure and give the economy some breathing room.
Jobs were a bright spot in 2024, with nearly 2 million positions added through November. However, signs of a cooling labor market are becoming clearer. Job openings have declined sharply—down 4.4 million since their 2022 peak—and the “Great Resignation” is officially over. Fewer people are quitting, and wages are starting to moderate in favor of employers (but still high at 4.3% according to the Atlanta FED down from a 6.7% peak in July 2022).
In November, the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.2% from 4.1% in October, remaining higher than the 3.7% rate in November 2023. Projections for 2025 show unemployment inching up to around 4.5%, still within historically low levels.
Bottom Line: There’s reason for cautious optimism in the new year. Housing markets remain strong, inflation seems tamer, and interest rates are moderating. At the same time, though softer, the labor market is not in imminent danger.
If you’re a renter, 2025 could bring more balance before the tide turns upward again in 2026. For homeowners, affordability remains a challenge, but opportunities exist. For all of us, keeping an eye on jobs, wages, and policy changes with a new administration will be key as we navigate the new year.
— Marcus Scott, CFA, CFP®, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) for Country Club Trust Company
CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are registered trademarks owned by CFA Institute.
Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. (CFP Board) owns the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER®, CFP® (with plaque design), and CFP® (with flame design) in the U.S., which it authorizes use of by individuals who successfully complete CFP Board's initial and ongoing certification requirements.
The opinions and views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Country Club Trust Company, a division of Country Club Bank, or any affiliate thereof. Information provided is for illustrative and discussion purposes only; should not be considered a recommendation; and is subject to change. Some information provided above may be obtained from outside sources believed to be reliable, but no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Please note that investments involve risk, and that past performance does not guarantee future results.
Focus on Values
Giving the gifts of strength, hope, and guidance through a Legacy Letter
This time of year is a perfect time to pause, reflect, and give thanks for the people who matter most in our lives. Whether it’s the joyous gatherings or simply a moment of quiet gratitude, this season reminds us of the importance of connection and the legacy we leave behind. One powerful way to share love and gratitude is through a Legacy Letter—a heartfelt, hand-written letter to children and other close relatives that passes on values, wisdom, and stories to future generations.
Blake Brewer understands the profound impact of such a letter firsthand. At the age of 19, during a family trip to Hawaii, his father tragically passed away in a snorkeling accident. Amid the grief, Brewer’s mother handed him a letter his father had been working on for months—a letter brimming with love, lessons, and guidance.
This letter became a source of strength and encouragement for Brewer. Inspired by the power of his father's words, Brewer established the Legacy Letter Challenge to help others create similar messages for their children.
Unlike wills that distribute material possessions, a Legacy Letter bequeaths the intangible treasures of the heart and mind. It's an opportunity to express unconditional love, share personal stories, and impart wisdom that can guide and inspire future generations.
But you don’t have to try and figure it out alone. Brewer offers a structured approach through free toolkits and guided frameworks you can use to craft letters for your family, ensuring that no essential element is overlooked.
For more information and free resources on how to begin your Legacy Letter, visit LegacyLetter.com, where you'll find practical tips, testimonials, and tools to assist you in crafting a letter that truly reflects your heart and legacy.